Causal Discoveries

We return now to the fairies
Of the real—the preposterous

Formulas for the deduction
Of causes from correlations—

Can path coefficients tell you
What correlations never do?

We misquote, of course. Always do.
Faith in causation is stubborn

As faith in the paths of the stars.
Prediction is the best weapon

In the war to control the past,
Which is why, when not killing them,

Kings trusted in astrologers.
It takes a long time to observe—

However well one predicts stars,’
Sun’s, and moon’s tracks and eclipses—

One hasn’t grasped the fate of kings,
Plagues, famines, or prosperity.

Ah. You spotted that small “why”
A few lines ago, didn’t you?

Faith is an aspect of language—
Is any aspect of language

That we struggle to do without
Even when it doesn’t hold true.

It’s hard to think without stories,
To explain our lives without plots,

To parse change without agency,
Developments without telos,

Headlong force with no intentions,
Linked events without causation.

On another planet somewhere
Sentient beings may sing lyrics

That depict a marvelous world
Of many wonders happening

For absolutely no reason,
There being no fairies in them.